After the interest rate hike, nearly 1.7 billion in funds are buying gold against the trend. Who keeps buying more as the price drops?

　　Source: Caiwen

　　The contrarian buying is not a short-term impulse; data shows that Huaan Gold ETF has seen net inflows over the past 3, 5, and 20 days, and has achieved net subscriptions for 10 consecutive trading days; Yongying Gold Stock ETF saw a net subscription of 457 million shares in the past three days.

　　In the past 30 hours, the international gold price experienced a roller coaster of sharp declines and rises. After the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike, spot gold plummeted over $100, hitting a low of $4,234/oz, but then quickly rebounded, surging back above $4,330.

　　On September 18, the international gold price continued to fluctuate. London gold spot and COMEX gold futures swung repeatedly around $4,350. Market sentiment quickly spread to the domestic capital market. In today’s morning session, domestic gold-related stocks opened high but moved lower, with several gold stocks turning negative.

　　Amid the sharp volatility in gold prices, the choices of funds have sent completely different signals. According to iFinD data, on September 17, Yongying Gold Stock ETF saw a single-day net inflow of 969 million yuan, with Huaan Gold ETF close behind with a single-day net inflow of 697 million yuan.

　　The contrarian buying is not a short-term impulse; data shows Huaan Gold ETF had net inflows in the past 3, 5, and 20 days, with 10 consecutive trading days of net subscription; Yongying Gold Stock ETF saw 457 million shares net subscribed in the past three days. Although the past 20 days still show net redemption, the rapid return of short-term capital somewhat indicates,

　　Taking the CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Index as a reference, as of September 17, the index's rolling P/E ratio was about 17.7 times, at a relatively low point in the past year. Looking at an extended timeline, the rolling P/E ratio of the index fell to the 16 times range at the end of June 2026. From the extreme undervaluation then to a partial recovery in valuation, gold stocks have undergone a clear round of repair, but are still some way from their peak at the beginning of the year.

　　The China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) pointed out in a research report “Re-evaluating Safe-Haven Assets” published in March 2026,

　　Meanwhile, the trend of continued global central bank gold purchases provides a floor for the gold price. World Gold Council data shows that in the second quarter of this year, global central banks had net purchases of 289 tons of gold—the strongest second-quarter performance on record.

　　Domestically, the People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 22 consecutive months. As of the end of August 2026, gold reserves stood at 76.73 million ounces (about 2,386.57 tons), up 650,000 ounces (about 20.22 tons) from end-July, setting a new high increase since October 2023. Since resuming gold purchases in November 2024, the central bank has been accelerating its gold accumulation, with monthly purchases rising from 160,000 ounces in March to 650,000 ounces in August 2026.

　　A survey by the World Gold Council in June showed that nearly 90% of central banks surveyed believe that global central bank gold reserves will continue to increase over the next 12 months, and 45% indicated plans to increase gold holdings in the coming year—setting a record high for this survey.

　　Market expectations for gold’s future trend are also divided. The latest CICC research note believes that, based on static calculations of US Treasury yields and the US dollar, the support for gold is in the $4,200–4,500 range; unless rate hikes continue, the downside pressure is controllable. In addition, although a rate hike temporarily weakens the de-dollarization narrative’s upward momentum, the logic for a medium-term allocation to gold remains intact, and the window for re-adding gold after the recent adjustment has reopened.

　　Li Chong, Joint Chief Analyst of Overseas Macro at CITIC Securities, noted that the dot plot sent a hawkish signal, with another 25 basis point rate hike expected this year and likely no change next year. Against this backdrop, the conditions for a short-term gold rebound are somewhat fragile. However, a previous CITIC Securities report also pointed out that if rate hike expectations are fully revised, gold prices may return to the $4,500–5,000/oz range.

Editor: Zhu Henan