Gold prices continue to fall as HSBC casts doubts and predicts further decline
On Tuesday, October 6, during the Asian session, international spot gold continued to face downward pressure, at one point falling below the $4,110/oz level and hitting a low near $4,104, marking the second consecutive trading day of decline. With the Federal Reserve meeting minutes about to be released and both the US dollar and US Treasury yields remaining high, market sentiment is clearly bearish, making the defense of the $4,000 level once again the main focus of bulls and bears.
[News Brief]
US Treasury yields remain elevated, becoming the main obstacle to gold price increases. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at about 5.31%, the highest since April 2002, while the 30-year yield rose to around 5.66%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has strengthened and is on track to record its highest close since April 2025. This round of interplay between the forex and bond markets is putting pressure on non-interest-bearing gold in the short term.
However, market expectations for the Fed’s policy path have shifted significantly. Federal funds rate futures show the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to around 22% to 24%, down from about 70% last week, although the risk of additional tightening in December hasn't been completely ruled out. The market's next focus will be the release of the September Fed meeting minutes at 2:00 pm (ET) on Wednesday, the weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 am (UTC+8) on Thursday, and preliminary October consumer sentiment data at 10:00 am (UTC+8) on Friday. If labor market or sentiment data continue to weaken, this could further validate the cooling signal from the nonfarm payrolls report and so provide support for gold; if inflation expectations strengthen again, yields will likely continue to suppress gold prices.
After US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data turned out softer, traders’ bets on a Fed rate hike in October have cooled dramatically. The present market view is that there is only a 17% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, sharply down from 64% a week ago. Analysts point out that this change has dampened the previously hawkish expectations that suppressed gold, while also limiting further downside for gold prices.
At the same time, HSBC analysts have lowered their average gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,560 to $4,490, reflecting a more cautious outlook on gold’s further upside. However, the bank also emphasized that ongoing net purchases of gold by central banks worldwide remain an important pillar of support and are expected to continue limiting how deep gold price corrections may go.
[Latest International Gold Market Analysis]
Yesterday, gold once again showed a classic roller-coaster tug-of-war pattern. In early trading, international gold tested resistance at $4,163 before quickly falling back, reaching a low at $4,124; during the European session, there was a brief attempt to break above the $4,163 range, but bullish momentum remained insufficient and prices only touched $4,170 before slipping again. Late in the session, it dropped to near $4,123, and the daily chart closed with a doji, perfectly continuing the recent alternation between bullish and bearish candlesticks in this period of volatility.
From a historical technical perspective and routine patterns, today’s daily candlestick will probably close bearish. But, considering the US Dollar Index spiked and then retreated, this will provide some bottom-side support for gold, so intraday action is still likely to remain choppy within a range, rather than trending in a single direction.
Key support below: Pay particular attention to the overnight low around $4,123 — if price holds there, expect a narrow range and sideways action for the day.
If the price breaks this support effectively, gold could extend its decline to test the $4,100 level and then the critical support near $4,080. If it returns to the core support area, watch closely for signals of stabilization and recovery. Key resistance above: The early high of $4,145 is a short-term watershed between bulls and bears; if price tests this level and fails, watch for pullbacks. Once the market successfully holds above $4,145, it indicates that short-term bearish momentum is exhausted, limiting further downside for the day and putting the recent highs back in play. Strong resistance remains locked at the $4,200 level and the previous nonfarm payrolls high of $4,225.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
US Dollar Index slips from its 18-month high
Monnalisa shares delist from Euronext Growth Milan
Monnalisa’s delisting from trading on Euronext Growth Milan took effect today. The company is preparing a shareholder buyback process led by Modamet and Jafin Due for investors seeking to sell. Further details are due in coming days on the purchase window and a single settlement date for the transactions. Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Monnalisa S.p.A. published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 06, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.
Updated version 3 - Becton Dickinson commits to invest 19 billion dollars in an agreement with the government.
BD will invest $3 billion to expand its manufacturing operations in the United States, aiming to increase the proportion of critical medical supplies sourced domestically to approximately 80%. The agreement links the company’s U.S. manufacturing commitments to tariff relief. Information about the stock price was added in the third paragraph, analyst commentary in the sixth paragraph, and background information in the eleventh paragraph. Siddhi Mahatole, Reuters, October 6 — Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX.N) has become the first major U.S. medical device manufacturer to sign an agreement with the U.S. government to expand domestic manufacturing, with a pledge to invest $19 billion in the coming years in exchange for protection against future tariffs. Under the agreement, the company said on Tuesday it plans to make capital, operational, and supply chain investments in the U.S., with $3 billion specifically allocated to strategic manufacturing facilities across the country. Shares of the medical device maker rose 2.4% in early trading. This deal is one of several measures by the Trump administration to encourage domestic healthcare manufacturing through the threat of tariffs, with several major pharmaceutical companies having already committed billions of dollars toward building and expanding production and R&D facilities in the U.S. The agreement ties BD’s U.S. manufacturing commitments to future exemptions from tariffs on related products and raw materials under Section 232, depending on the final scope of the measures and whether the company achieves agreed-upon milestones. Jefferies analyst Matthew Taylor commented, “We believe clarity on tariff policy, or tariff impacts being potentially ‘not as bad as feared,’ could be an inflection point for the medtech sector.” He added, “We are curious if there are more medtech-related announcements pending.” The company plans to increase annual U.S. production by around 5 billion basic medical supply units, raising the domestic supply share to roughly 80%. BD also intends to use U.S.-made steel to manufacture all needles for the U.S. market domestically. Becton Dickinson stated that, as the final tariff rates, product range, and implementation timelines remain undetermined, the financial impact of the agreement has not been quantified yet. This announcement builds on President Donald Trump’s Monday statement that the company has agreed to invest $3 billion to shift basic medical product manufacturing to the U.S., with more than $1 billion allocated to Nebraska. In January this year, Becton Dickinson announced a $110 million investment to expand the production of prefilled syringes and needles in Columbus, Nebraska, expected to create about 120 jobs. Syringe products are expected to start shipping to customers by mid-2026.
ICE brings futures trading to London’s $190 billion-a-day physical gold market
