Central 1 expects the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates only twice in this round, and to start in early next year.

智通财经2026/10/06 14:16

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Central 1 Credit Union in Canada anticipates that the Bank of Canada may only raise interest rates twice during the current tightening cycle, with the first hike expected to occur early next year, which is significantly less aggressive than current market pricing suggests. Central 1 economist Bryan Yu stated that Canada is currently experiencing a period of high uncertainty, with the economic outlook rapidly evolving. The sharp rise in U.S. and Canadian bond yields, the impact of tariffs, and drastic fluctuations in oil prices have all increased the difficulty of policy decisions. Yu pointed out that Canada’s core inflation remains close to 2%, and due to trade uncertainties, economic growth may slow by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, elevated bond yields could also suppress the recovery of the real estate market, thereby limiting both the necessity and room for the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy.

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```htmlCentral 1 Credit Union in Canada expects that the Bank of Canada may only raise interest rates twice in this tightening cycle, with the first action likely not occurring until early next year, which is clearly less aggressive than what is currently reflected in financial market pricing. Central 1 economist Bryan Yu stated that Canada is currently in a period of high uncertainty, with the economic outlook continuing to change rapidly. The sharp rise in US and Canadian bond yields, the effects of tariffs, and extreme fluctuations in oil prices all make policy decisions more difficult. Yu pointed out that Canada's core inflation is still close to 2%, and due to trade uncertainty, economic growth may slow down by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, higher bond yields may suppress the recovery of the real estate market, thereby limiting the necessity and capacity for the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy.```

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Central 1 expects the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates only twice in this round, and to start in early next year.

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