CICC: Inflation exceeds expectations, urgency for Fed to cut interest rates decreases

The latest research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) points out that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by 3.4% year-on-year (previous value 3.1%), and the core CPI increased by 3.9% year-on-year (previous value 4.0%), both higher than expected. We believe that the general direction of US inflation is still slowing down, but the pace is highly uncertain, which means that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will be full of variables. If the Federal Reserve turns to loose monetary policy too early, it may lead to a rebound in demand, increasing the risk of "economic non-landing" and "second inflation". Therefore, investors should be more cautious about expectations of interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in March as the market hopes, and the expectation of six interest rate cuts throughout the year may be too aggressive.