Before the release of U.S. PCE data, the probability that the Fed would remain on hold in May was 95.8%
Golden Ten Data March 29, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in May is 95.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.2%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 36.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 61%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 2.6%.
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