Before the release of non-farm payrolls: the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September is 30.5%
According to the CME “Fed Watch”: the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 30.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 65.0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 33.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 2.0%.
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