Bitcoin has secured a price floor above $108K, buoyed by an increase in Realized Cap and shifting supply dynamics that favor long-term holders.
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Whale accumulation accelerates as the MVRV divergence hints at a market structural maturity.
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Short liquidations combined with trendline support suggest BTC could push towards $114K.
Bitcoin [BTC] has recently established a new all-time high, surpassing $108K, yet its MVRV ratio remains notably below the peaks seen in past cycles (2013, 2017, and 2021), which frequently exceeded 3.5. This divergence indicates that the rising Realized Cap suggests that more coins are being held by strong hands with higher cost bases, skewing typical profit-taking behaviors observed during previous MVRV spikes.
This shift highlights a deeper market maturity where new capital is more effectively absorbing supply at elevated prices.
Are whales accumulating quietly as outflows disappear?
The behavior of large holders has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. Inflows have surged by over 11,800%, while outflows have declined by more than 91%. This sharp contrast reveals a net accumulation phase, with large players adding assets to holding wallets, reflecting strong confidence and diminishing near-term sell pressure.
The absence of corresponding outflows indicates that these whales are not rotating capital among exchanges but are instead committing to longer-term positions.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Strengthening on-chain fundamentals amid tighter supply
Exchange reserves have experienced a 2.14% decline, now sitting at $262.3 billion. This signifies a diminishing availability of coins on centralized exchanges, which can lead to decreased sell-side pressure. A falling reserve alongside rising prices indicates holders are opting for self-custody rather than immediate sales.
In tandem with this, the BTC NVT Golden Cross has decreased by over 12% to 0.43, signifying a better alignment between valuation and network activity. The combination of supply contraction along with strong utility lays a solid foundation for a sustainable uptick, showing fewer signs of speculative overheating.
Source: CryptoQuant
Are leveraged traders undergoing a reset?
The BTC Binance liquidation map has identified a concentration of short liquidations above $108K, indicating that bears are facing pressure as prices rise. Significant liquidation clusters are observed between $111K and $114K, suggesting any bullish momentum could induce a wave of liquidations.
Nonetheless, Open Interest has declined by 5.26%, indicating a cooling of speculative pressures. This reset of positions may purge over-leveraged traders, thereby minimizing the likelihood of abrupt market reversals. If BTC maintains this trend, this recalibration could establish a more stable bullish momentum moving forward.
Source: Coinglass
Can BTC sustain its rally while adhering to trendline support?
Currently, BTC is trading above a well-established ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart, bouncing near the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $107.7K. This trendline support has been tested without yielding, indicating robust buying interest.
As long as Bitcoin’s price remains above this critical trendline, the bullish structure holds firm. A successful push beyond $110.8K, clearing resistance at $114K, could invite further upward movement toward $115.9K.
Conversely, a drop below the trendline may jeopardize this bullish outlook, potentially triggering a corrective phase down to $105K or lower.
Source: TradingView
Overall, BTC’s current configuration exhibits a robust uptrend supported by institutional accumulation, diminishing supply, and less speculative pressure. With the trendline serving as a solid foundation and short liquidations alongside declining NVT reinforcing upward momentum, as long as support remains above $107.7K, Bitcoin appears set to target the $111K–$114K range next.
