UBS: Trump’s Tariff Hike Delay Likely to Postpone Consumer Pressure Until 2026

Odaily Planet Daily News – UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan stated that Trump’s decision to postpone the tariff hike until August 1 may mean that the impact of these additional tariffs on prices will not be fully felt before Christmas, but will instead be delayed until 2026. He pointed out: “Given that retailers typically stock up for Christmas in advance, and goods must go through the entire supply chain from production to shelves, even if tariffs are implemented now, the point at which consumers truly feel the price increases may be even later. This will undoubtedly help cushion some of the impact for U.S. consumers in the second half of the year.” Avoiding the cost pressure from tariffs during the year-end shopping season is beneficial for the White House, as it helps prevent negative news. However, Donovan also warned that any delay cannot completely prevent these tariffs from eventually being passed on to American households. He said: “This is essentially a massive tax increase on American consumers. By the end of this year, real wages adjusted for inflation will begin to decline rather than rise, and that’s when we’ll see the real problems start to emerge.” (Jin10)