- Phase 4 of the Puell Multiple cycle hasn’t begun
- Current cycle remains historically consistent
- Bitcoin could still see major upside
The Puell Multiple Says Bitcoin Isn’t Done Yet
Despite Bitcoin ’s recent volatility, one key on-chain indicator tells a different story — the Puell Multiple cycle is still incomplete. Specifically, Bitcoin has yet to enter Phase 4, the part of the cycle historically linked to explosive price movement and market euphoria.
What’s more remarkable is that this has been the longest gap ever between Phases 3 and 4 in the Puell Multiple’s history. Still, the overall structure remains firmly intact — a sign that this cycle might just be playing out more gradually, not differently.
Understanding the Puell Multiple Cycle
The Puell Multiple is an on-chain metric that compares daily Bitcoin issuance (miner revenue) to its yearly average. It’s used to identify major tops and bottoms in the Bitcoin market through four distinct phases:
- Phase 1 (Capitulation) – Oversold zone, often near market bottoms
- Phase 2 (Recovery) – Gradual increase in price and mining profitability
- Phase 3 (Expansion) – Renewed bullish sentiment with rising prices
- Phase 4 (Euphoria) – Parabolic rally, often followed by a blow-off top
Right now, Bitcoin remains stuck between Phase 3 and Phase 4, but history shows that this delayed transition doesn’t mean the cycle is invalid — only that it’s maturing at a different pace.
Still on Track for the Big Move
Analysts tracking the Puell Multiple note that while the market feels uncertain, Bitcoin’s cycle structure is surprisingly on track when viewed through a long-term lens. The fundamentals remain strong: supply is tightening, institutional interest is rising, and on-chain signals are aligned with previous bull runs.
The absence of Phase 4 so far may actually be a bullish sign — it suggests that the largest upside movement might still be ahead.
So, for those waiting for the euphoric top… it’s not over until it’s over.
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