Survey: ECB May Deliver Final Rate Cut of This Cycle in December

According to ChainCatcher, a survey shows that European Central Bank officials will wait until December to implement the next rate cut, which is likely to be the final step in this round of rate reductions. Compared to the July survey, economists have postponed their expectations for the next rate cut by three months.

They believe that by then, the deposit rate will be lowered to 1.75% and will remain at that level for 9 to 10 months. After that, as demand recovers, the ECB will be forced to reverse its policy direction. Waiting until the final decision of 2025 to take action will give ECB policymakers more time to assess the impact of trade turbulence triggered by U.S. President Trump.

By December, policymakers will have access to third-quarter economic performance data, which will more clearly reflect the underlying economic momentum after the distortions caused by companies acting ahead of U.S. tariff hikes at the beginning of the year have faded. The new forecast report will also provide them with their first insight into growth and inflation trends for 2028.