Misfortunes never come singly! Trump's two major "campaign pillars" are simultaneously deadlocked

Two of U.S. President Trump’s most prominent campaign promises—to reshape the American economy through tariffs and to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict—are facing harsh realities and have reached an impasse.

The deadline set by the U.S. president for a meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky will pass with no prospect of talks, while a U.S. appeals court has ruled that most of Trump’s tariff regime is illegal.

As Trump’s efforts to expel undocumented immigrants also face setbacks in court, the path to fulfilling his high-profile promises within the first year of his term is filled with uncertainty as he heads into the fall.

“I have the right to do whatever I want,” Trump said last week. Just days later, a judge’s ruling threatened the cornerstone of his economic policy.

The stakes are now high for Trump, as he has begun laying the groundwork for the Republican midterm elections. He has made no secret of the consequences of failure, even suggesting that losing his tariffs would be “a total disaster” for the United States.

Tariff Ruling

Last Friday, an appeals court ruled that Trump had wrongly invoked a rarely used emergency law as the basis for his global tariffs, but retained those tariffs during the review of the case.

However, this ruling once again throws all of America’s international trade into uncertainty and chaos, just as most tariff rates with trade partners seemed to have finally been settled in August.

If the ruling is ultimately upheld, Trump will not only lose his vision for a new American economy, but also the funding rationale for his only legislative achievement—the “Big and Beautiful Act,” worth 3.4 trillions dollars, which cut taxes and federal spending. As a candidate, Trump had promised that his tariffs would also be part of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) revolution, leading to a revival of domestic manufacturing.

“So this is a bad ruling. But the good news is, the dissent is very, very strong,” White House trade advisor Navarro said of the 7-4 decision. “I think it provides a very clear roadmap for how the Supreme Court can ultimately rule in our favor.”

The Conflict Continues

During the 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly promised that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict “on day one,” citing his self-proclaimed legendary deal-making skills and his warm relationship with Putin.

During his eight months as president, Trump has both rebuked Zelensky and tried to persuade Putin to reach some sort of agreement to end the conflict, even giving Putin the red-carpet treatment and hosting a summit in Alaska.

Putin left Trump with the impression that he would hold direct talks with Zelensky to negotiate a possible land swap to end the conflict, but Zelensky still opposes giving up more territory, and Russian officials said shortly after the summit that no talks were imminent.

Trump has occasionally expressed disappointment with the Russian leader and set a two-week deadline for Putin to agree to talks, a deadline that expired on Monday.

Last week, the Kremlin launched one of its most intense drone and missile attacks of the year, striking Ukrainian apartment buildings and killing at least four children.

French President Macron said at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Merz last Friday that European leaders are increasingly disappointed with Trump’s attempts to resolve the conflict, “This once again means that President Putin has played President Trump.”

Trump himself also seemed surprised that Putin did not agree to the American leader’s plea. In an interview published last Saturday, he said, “We’ve had a good relationship for years, actually a very good one. That’s why I really thought we could get this done.”

Trump had counted on a trilateral summit with himself, Putin, and Zelensky to secure the Nobel Peace Prize he has long coveted. Instead, Trump repeatedly emphasized his important role in resolving multiple conflicts, even trying to persuade the leaders of conflicts such as Armenia and Azerbaijan to nominate him for the prize.

Controversy Over Immigration and Anti-Crime Actions

Some of Trump’s priorities are also controversial, with the courts adding another judicial resistance to his deportation efforts over the weekend.

Late last Friday, a judge blocked the administration from using so-called “expedited removal” against undocumented immigrants who have been living in the United States for some time. On Sunday, another judge blocked the deportation of Guatemalan children without due legal process. Other cases are still under review.

Note: Expedited Removal is an administrative procedure in the United States that allows immigration officers to directly deport foreign nationals who do not meet entry requirements or are illegally residing, usually without going through immigration court.

After Trump commandeered the Washington, D.C. National Guard and assigned other federal agents to handle crime in the capital, he threatened to take similar action against some Democratic governors who opposed him, which could trigger more legal battles.

Moreover, Trump’s actions could also undermine his campaign promises, as the states he is targeting include major metropolitan centers with large minority populations, groups he has suggested would benefit from his second-term policies. In July, the unemployment rate for African Americans soared above 7%, a level not seen since the U.S. recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Road Ahead Is Difficult

With both major pillars of Trump’s presidency in question, Trump plans to visit the UK for a state visit in September and will also speak at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he remains one of the few world leaders to fully support Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as Israel advances its offensive in Gaza.

If his attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook on charges of mortgage fraud is blocked, Trump could face yet another major defeat. Cook has filed a lawsuit, and the Supreme Court has indicated that dismissing officials from the independent Federal Reserve Board may be more difficult than removing leaders of other agencies.