Moody's: Probability of U.S. recession in the next 12 months reaches 48%, economy stands at a tipping point

According to Jinse Finance, citing Finbold, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that the institution’s latest machine learning leading indicator shows that as of August, the probability of a recession in the United States within the next year is 48%. He noted that although this reading is below the 50% threshold, historically, when the probability approaches or surpasses the 40% range, it often coincides with or closely follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that slowing employment and consecutive downward revisions of data have placed the economy at a critical juncture.