Real Vision founder: Bitcoin will experience a "five-year cycle" this round, most likely peaking in Q2 next year
ChainCatcher reported that Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated in his latest podcast released yesterday that bitcoin is now replicating the ISM (Institute for Supply Management Index, i.e., the "business cycle"). The core point is: bitcoin is now following the ISM, and interest rates are also moving to the same rhythm. In 2021–22, the Treasury extended the debt-weighted average maturity from 4 years to 5 years. As a result, the entire cycle was forcibly extended by one year—the original "four-year cycle" has become a "five-year cycle." The model shows that the ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity is likely to peak earlier, because the second derivative (rate of change) of ISM and liquidity will turn first.
"Our guess is: the real peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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