Bitcoin holds near $122,000 after Fed minutes signal more cuts this year

Bitcoin steadied on Thursday as traders weighed the minutes from the Federal Reserve, signaling that officials see room for additional easing this year.

Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed policymakers broadly backing further reductions, with roughly half favoring two more cuts before year-end. Analysts argued that the update cushions expectations for easier financial conditions into the fourth quarter.

“The global liquidity cycle is clearly turning, said Tim Misir, head of research at BRN. “Central banks are quietly transitioning from tightening to easing, with rate markets now pricing 90% odds of a Fed cut in October and another in December.” He added that markets are now seeing a “synchronized softening across global funding conditions,” which historically fuels support risk-asset surges and Bitcoin bull cycles.

The largest cryptocurrency changed hands at around $122,000 on Oct. 9 after the news, oscillating between $121,000 and $124,000 after recent highs, according to The Block’s price page .

Flows into crypto funds stayed constructive. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged one of their biggest single-day hauls earlier this week — $1.19 billion on Monday — as prices set fresh highs, and have continued to see net creations in subsequent sessions.

“ETF creations are the cleanest, least noisy signal of institutional sponsorship,” said Thomas Chen, CEO of crypto infrastructure startup Function, noting he’s watching for any sustained slowdown in net inflows. Paul Howard of Wincent added that recent inflows “helped lock in new floor prices in anticipation of an extended rally into year-end.”

Macro crosscurrents also favored hard assets. Rate markets and prediction venues were aligned on further easing. CME’s FedWatch tool showed high probabilities of additional cuts this year. At the same time, Polymarket traders priced a roughly 90% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Oct. 29 meeting and leaned toward three total cuts in 2025.

Some geopolitical tension eased, too, after President Donald Trump said Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage deal. A calmer Middle East could help stabilize risk sentiment, Misir shared.

At the margin, analysts see bitcoin’s near-term range around $121,000–$126,000, with a decisive break above opening a path toward $130,000. BTC options open interest remains elevated above $50 billion, The Block's data shows. For now, analysts surmise that the path of least resistance remains tied to the Fed’s easing timeline and whether the ETF bid stays intact.