The most comprehensive data analysis: BTC falls below the key $100,000 level, is the bull market really over?

Chainfeeds Guide:

Even if bitcoin is indeed in a bear market now, this bear market may not last too long.

Source:

TechFlow

Opinion:

10x Research: When the bitcoin price falls below the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the market enters a minor bear market. If the bitcoin price drops below the $110,000 - $112,000 range, we will continue to maintain a bearish outlook; however, if the price breaks above this range, we may turn bullish. In the past 30 days, long-term holders have sold 185,000 bitcoins, with a total value of about $20 billions. Long-term holders believe the current market may decline further, so they have chosen to exit the market. On-chain data also shows that this may be a deeper market correction. At present, the market seems to have entered a bear market phase dominated by selling. The sell-off may take various forms and could last longer. We predict that bitcoin may rebound to $110,000 before falling again. Historically, when the bitcoin price falls below the realized price, the market usually enters a deep bear market phase. The current realized price is about $82,000, which is an important dividing line between the end of a bitcoin bull market and the start of a bear market. If the price falls below this level, the market may first test the key support at $93,000. As long as the bitcoin price is below $113,000, we will continue to maintain a bearish market view. Whether the bitcoin price is below the 21-week EMA is an important indicator for judging market trends. We expect the next bull market may start after the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy, which is one of the core factors we are closely watching. The realized price for short-term holders is a key indicator, currently at $112,798 (at the time of podcast recording), reflecting the average purchase level of short-term holders over the past 155 days. When the bitcoin price falls below this level, investors usually choose to cut their losses, leading to further market declines. This is mainly because short-term traders tend to buy in anticipation of price increases, and when the price falls below their entry point, they quickly sell their assets. We can see that when bitcoin fell below $113,000, the price dropped further, triggering a large-scale forced liquidation event in October. In addition, on-chain data also shows that this may be a deeper market correction. At present, the market seems to have entered a bear market phase dominated by selling. The sell-off may take various forms and could last longer. Historically, when short-term holders are in a loss position, the bitcoin price tends to fall further. Only when the price breaks above this level (ideally driven by a strong catalyst) can the market turn bullish. Otherwise, the market still faces significant downside risk. In this situation, protecting capital is especially important. If we want to buy at lower prices, we must sell at higher levels.