Market Focus: How the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Will Reveal the Direction of Interest Rates

BlockBeats News, November 16, according to an analysis by the Financial Times, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting will be released early next Thursday (Beijing time), and investors are currently facing increasing uncertainty regarding the path of US interest rates. Last month, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, but investors hoping for Chairman Powell to hint at another rate cut in December were disappointed. Before the October meeting, the market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but Powell's statement that "further rate cuts by the end of the year are not a foregone conclusion" quickly reshaped market expectations.

Boston Fed President Collins further questioned the possibility of a rate cut next month this week, emphasizing that "the threshold for implementing additional easing in the near term is relatively high." The lack of data will become a major obstacle for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. The 43-day US government shutdown ended this week, during which all key labor market and inflation data were suspended, making it difficult for investors to assess the true health of the world's largest economy. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out in a client report that the lack of data and delayed release of employment market indicators mean that "the Federal Reserve will face an information gap when making decisions at the December meeting."