Author: Yuuki, Deep Tide TechFlow
1. Overall Performance
1. Market Sentiment:
Last week, the market was in extreme panic. The temporary positive news of the U.S. government shutdown ending was quickly replaced by the negative impact of the decreased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term bond yields continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield climbing to 1.73%, a 17-year high.
BTC fell 9.99% over the week, ETH dropped 13.62%, MSTR's mNAV fell to 1.2, and BMNR's ETH holdings had a floating loss of 3 billion. Currently, crypto is following U.S. stocks on the downside but not on the upside. Investors are focusing on Nvidia's earnings report this Thursday, as well as real liquidity injections from the government reopening and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction. According to the Coinglass Fear & Greed Index, market sentiment was in the fear zone for all seven days last week, with five days in extreme fear; the last similar situation occurred on February 27, 2025, and the market recovered two months later.
Figure: Market sentiment was in extreme fear last week
Data source: Coinglass
2. Macro Events:
Due to sticky inflation and a labor market that has not cooled significantly, coupled with the lack of core data during the government shutdown, several Federal Reserve officials—including Kashkari, Harker, and Musalem—gave hawkish speeches last week. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to drop to 43.9%, suppressing risk asset prices. The three major U.S. stock indices saw significant midweek corrections, and the crypto market continued to decline.
Figure: Probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December drops to 43.9%
Data source: CME Group
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 1.73%, the highest since June 2008—a 17-year high. The unwinding of yen carry trades will also lead to a tightening of global liquidity.
Figure: Japan's 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.73%
Data source: TradingView
3. Specific Data:
Last week, BTC ETF saw outflows of 1.112 billion USD, down 7.9% week-on-week; ETH ETF saw outflows of 729 million USD, up 43.5% week-on-week. Currently, BTC exchange balances stand at 2,137,400 coins, unchanged week-on-week; ETH exchange balances are at 12.01 million coins, down 1.75% week-on-week. As of November 16, the stablecoin market cap is 26.5095 billion USD, unchanged week-on-week.
Figure: BTC ETF outflows of 1.112 billion USD, down 7.9% week-on-week
Data source: Coinglass
Figure: ETH ETF outflows of 729 million USD, up 43.5% week-on-week
Data source: Coinglass
Figure: BTC exchange balances unchanged week-on-week
Data source: Coinglass
Figure: ETH exchange balances down 1.75% week-on-week
Data source: Coinglass
Figure: Stablecoin market cap unchanged week-on-week
Data source: Coinglass
2. Local Hotspots
1. ZEC rose 6% over the week, hitting new highs, and STRK surged 47%. While the overall market was sluggish last week, the privacy sector continued to lead, with ZEC up 6% and its market cap surpassing 15 billion, making it the 10th largest crypto asset. The top short address for ZEC on Hyperliquid had a floating loss of over 22 million USD, with a liquidation price of 1,112 USD. The market began speculating on ZEC on-chain inscriptions. STRK rose 47% over the week; the STRK founder is also a co-founder of ZEC, and Vitalik's endorsement drew further market attention.
Figure: Privacy sector continues to lead the market
Data source: Coingecko
2. Aster rose 16% over the week, with about 1.7 million USD in daily revenue used for buybacks, up 30% compared to CZ's purchase price of 0.9 USD. Meanwhile, after CZ announced his purchase of Aster, the whales who had heavily shorted the token (previously holding positions worth up to 44 million USD) have all closed their positions at breakeven, triggering a sharp short-term rise in Aster.
3. Last week, both the open interest and trading volume of altcoin contracts on exchanges declined, reflecting the continued lack of liquidity following the sharp drop on October 11. The number of tokens minted on Solana and Bsc chains also continued to decline, and the market lacked hotspots.
Figure: Altcoin contract open interest and trading volume both declined
Data source: Coinglass
Figure: Token issuance on Solana and Bsc chains continues to decrease
Data source: Dune
4. Important News Last Week:
Federal Reserve officials Kashkari, Harker, and Musalem made cautious comments on rate cuts;
Tom Lee: There appears to be a significant "gap" in the balance sheets of one or two market makers;
Bitmine accumulated 67,021 ETH over the past week, worth about 234 million USD;
The Czech National Bank became the world's first central bank to purchase bitcoin;
Ripple invested 4 billion USD to build financial infrastructure connecting crypto and Wall Street;
Tether: To date, 1.5 billion USD has been deployed to expand commodity trade financing, exploring a new model of stablecoins plus physical assets;
Grayscale will apply for an IPO listing;
Stable: Mainnet launch coming soon;
dYdX community vote passed: the protocol fee buyback ratio will be significantly increased from 25% to 75%;
3. Focus This Week
1. Macro Events:
November 17: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy;
November 19: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook; Nvidia earnings report will be released;
November 20: U.S. September unemployment rate; Federal Reserve will release minutes of its monetary policy meeting;
November 21: U.S. November one-year inflation expectations final value; several Federal Reserve officials will speak.
2. Token Unlocks:
See "Large Unlocks for ZRO, ZK, KAITO and Other Tokens This Week" for details.
