Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle should peak in 2026, and cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

ChainCatcher reported that former Goldman Sachs executive, author of "Global Macro Investor," and Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated at the Solana Breakpoint conference:

"A declining labor force participation rate means a shrinking workforce. And demographics are the key driver of debt. Population growth will continue to decline, which means the debt-to-GDP ratio will keep rising, and that's the problem.

We have to face the global debt issue, and currency devaluation has always been a way to solve (or rather delay) this problem. We are already starting to see signs that the Federal Reserve has to reconsider its balance sheet and begin thinking about how to 'monetize' all this debt. It is expected that in the next 12 months, we will need to print about $8 trillion through liquidity injections.

I know many people may think the crypto cycle is over and believe that 'the good days are gone.' But in fact, what drives all of this is the cycle—not the bitcoin halving cycle, but the debt maturity cycle.

So, I think now it's not a 4-year cycle, but a 5.4-year cycle. In a 5.4-year cycle, we have already passed the trough, and the next step is the upward phase. The cycle should peak at the end of 2026, not in 2025. This is a breakthrough understanding for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

In addition, the altcoin/bitcoin cross rate is driven by the business cycle, and the business cycle now appears to be bottoming out, not peaking."