Tonight, ahead of the release of US employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in January next year is 24.4%.
BlockBeats News, December 16th. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before tonight's US employment data release, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 75.6%.
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until March next year is 49%, with a cumulative 25 basis points rate cut probability of 42.4% and a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut probability of 8.6%. The dates of the Fed's next two FOMC meetings are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the US November seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll data and the US November unemployment rate data tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8). The expected values are November seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in tens of thousands) at 4 and the November unemployment rate at 4.40%.
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