Analysis Firm Warned: “‘This is the Average Purchase Level for Bitcoin Investors, Price Should Not Fall Below This Level’”

Cryptocurrency analytics company CryptoQuant noted that the Bitcoin price is approaching a critical threshold in terms of investor behavior.

According to the company, Bitcoin is trading near the $81,500 level, which is considered the average cost for investors. They warn that a break below this level could increase selling pressure in the market and lead to a deeper pullback.

In its analysis, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s current price level is not only a psychological threshold but also represents the average cost at which investors actually entered the market. This indicator, called the True Market Average Price (TMMP), reflects the average purchase price on the chain, excluding miners. Historically, this level has acted as an “equilibrium point” for the market. When Bitcoin remains above this level, investors are seen as more comfortable, and pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities. However, when the price falls below the TMMP, this level often becomes resistance, and investors who bought at the average cost can use rallies as exit opportunities.

Another prominent indicator in the analysis was the AVIV Ratio. This metric focuses solely on investor profitability by comparing active market capitalization to realized market capitalization. CryptoQuant describes the AVIV Ratio as a sentiment and positioning indicator based on on-chain behavior rather than price momentum. It notes that current AVIV levels resemble “mid-term transitions” seen in past cycles. During such periods, the market doesn’t experience a sharp crash, nor does a strong uptrend emerge; prices tend to move sideways, volatility decreases, and investors quietly rebalance their positions.

According to CryptoQuant, this process marks a critical phase where weak confidence is emerging in the markets. If Bitcoin manages to stay above the TMMP level around $81,500 and the AVIV rate stabilizes in the 0.8-0.9 range, this would indicate that investors are absorbing supply and defending cost levels. This scenario is considered a positive signal in terms of maintaining the current trend. Conversely, a drop in price below TMMP and continued tightness in the AVIV rate could signal decreased profitability and weakening investor confidence. This usually leads to a search for new demand at lower levels.