Bitcoin Holds Ground as CME FedWatch Signals 17.7% Chance of January 2026 25bps Rate Cut; 46.7% Odds of Holding into March

1. Crypto outperformed traditional equity indexes following the rate hike, but elevated interest rates remain a key constraint on cross-asset allocation. From September 12 to 18, BTC, ETH, and SOL gained 4.83%, 3.84%, and 9.96%, respectively, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.11%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.998%. Improving risk appetite is therefore coexisting with elevated discount rates, raising the bar for RWA allocation: investors need to compare not only returns on the underlying assets, but also on-chain liquidity and collateral efficiency. 2. Growth in tokenized equities is occurring even as the overall RWA market remains under pressure. As of September 18, Distributed Asset Value across RWAs stood at $38.503 billion, down 1.13% week over week, while tokenized equities reached $3.056 billion, up 6.03%. This week's data are better explained by capital reallocating across different RWA segments than by a broad-based expansion of the entire RWA market. 3. For exchanges, the opportunity lies in connecting spot holdings, collateral, and derivatives. Reality's distributed asset value stands at approximately $155 million, while eligible rTokens can already be used within Bitget's UTA margin framework. Across CoinGlass's verifiable sample of 177 TradFi instruments, open interest reached approximately $11.498 billion, up 2.06% week over week, even as weekly trading volume declined 7.60%. The medium-term opportunity remains intact, but deeper utilization will depend on liquidity, collateral use, and sustained trading activity. 4.Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, NEAR, ZEC, gold, tokenized U.S. equities, COST. 5.Key metrics to watch: rToken collateral utilization, the durability of TradFi open interest and trading volume, and next week's employment and consumer data.