Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz has predicted that 2026 could potentially be a great year for crypto.
Still, he acknowledges the technical reality that the asset is "stalled."
Novogratz claims that Bitcoin would need to reclaim $100,000 in order to start gaining momentum.
"I need to see it start gaining momentum and break $100,000, and then I would get really excited…but I think crypto could be a good 2026."
A buy signal
In financial markets, extreme apathy often indicates a bottom because it means all the sellers have likely already sold. He views this lack of hype as a bullish setup for 2026 because the market isn't overheated.
"I also think that the negativity in crypto is a contrary indicator... macro sentiment on crypto retail Twitter crypto Twitter dead... So, that makes me positive, too," he said.
Gold has recorded "monster moves" recently based on macro factors like fear of inflation or currency debasement). However, Bitcoin did not follow suit despite its proponents touting it as "digital gold". Novogratz argues that the fundamental drivers are there, but the price action has not managed
"I think crypto has been such an underperformer. It's got the same story as gold, and it hasn't been gold at all this year... It's got all the ingredients…it's not moving yet," Novogratz said.
Canary in the coal mine
Novogratz has also issued a critical macro warning about Japan. The fifth-largest economy has kept interest rates near zero for decades.
Now that their rates are spiking to 2%, it disrupts global markets because cheap Japanese cash has funded investments everywhere else.
Novagratz warns this could be a preview of what happens to the US if inflation forces rates higher than expected.
"You're seeing Japanese long end [rates]... went from basically 10 basis points... all the way to 2%. So the single largest move in Japanese long-end rates that we've seen in years... that's maybe the canary in the coal mine which might happen in places like the US," he said.
