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With the midterm elections approaching, Trump’s policy maneuvers have become the biggest uncertainty for the US stock market in 2026.

With the midterm elections approaching, Trump’s policy maneuvers have become the biggest uncertainty for the US stock market in 2026.

Odaily星球日报Odaily星球日报2026/01/14 13:02
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According to Odaily, Ed Clissold, Chief US Strategist at Ned Davis Research, intends to coin a new term—Big MAC trading, an acronym for “Big Midterms Are Coming.” He wants to use this concept to summarize what he sees as the core theme of the US stock market in 2026: the policy direction before and after this fall’s congressional elections and its impact.

At the beginning of the year, US President Trump issued a series of policy-like statements in quick succession, clearly indicating that Trump is focusing on boosting the Republican Party’s chances in the November elections, with policy tools targeting the widely discussed issue of “affordability for American livelihoods.” This trend could have a profound impact on the stock market. Take last week’s market performance as an example: Trump demanded that credit card issuers cap interest rates at 10%—less than half the current average rate—which immediately sent bank stocks tumbling; after he ordered defense contractors to suspend dividend payments and invest funds in production, the defense sector also suffered heavy losses; and following recent government criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence, all of Wall Street was gripped by panic on Monday.

Clissold wrote in his report: “Before the midterm elections, policy adjustments targeting specific industries will become a major risk,” and the market is currently unclear on how to hedge against such risks. (Golden Ten Data)

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