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The Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with Waller fulfilling his hawkish commitments through decisive action and making it clear that current financial conditions are not tight, and this hike only removes "some accommodation," using strong language. UBS believes that Waller's policy response function has undergone a substantial shift compared to his predecessor—he is more sensitive to inflation and supply shocks, less concerned about the labor market, and has set a higher threshold for restrictive policy. The risks are clearly tilted toward interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period.

The pace and extent of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve largely depend on oil prices. According to CITIC Securities, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bps within this year and may remain on hold next year.

Analysts believe that Walsh emphasized closely monitoring inflation trends, but with only one month of data before the October meeting, it is insufficient to establish a "trend" for judgment, so action is expected again in December. The dot plot shows that 16 officials anticipate one more rate hike this year, but with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing 5%, traders are betting on a tighter path than the official dot plot suggests.

In the latest dot plot released on September 16, only 18 dots appeared. The missing one belongs to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh. This is the second consecutive time that Walsh has refused to leave his prediction on the dot plot.