Bank of China Hong Kong: The probability of a mid-year Fed rate cut is relatively high, and gold prices are expected to trend upward in the medium to long term.

Glonghui, January 29｜Zhang Shiqi, Head of Wealth Strategy and Analysis at Bank of China (Hong Kong), believes that the post-meeting statement reflects a slightly more optimistic outlook by the Federal Reserve on the US economy, so there is no rush for a short-term rate cut, and the pace of subsequent rate cuts will depend on economic data performance. She expects that, given the current US employment situation and the gradual decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve still has room to cut rates, and the probability of a rate cut in the middle of the year is relatively high. Looking ahead to this year's global stock markets, Zhang Shiqi stated that as global inflation gradually recedes and most major central banks are currently in a rate-cutting cycle, global liquidity easing will support the medium- to long-term performance of the stock market. As for gold, due to global central bank gold purchases and increased demand for allocation driven by risk aversion, gold has long-term allocation value. It is expected that the medium- to long-term trend of gold prices will be upward, with the potential to reach new highs again, but volatility will increase significantly.