Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnAISquareMore
Crypto Winter Began in January 2025, but There Are Signs of Recovery

Crypto Winter Began in January 2025, but There Are Signs of Recovery

CoinspeakerCoinspeaker2026/02/04 09:27
By:Coinspeaker

Key Notes

  • Hougan says strong institutional flows delayed recognition of the crypto winter that began in January 2025.
  • He noted that the market may be closer to the end of this bear phase.
  • Bitcoin dipped near $73,000 on February 3 before rebounding above $76,000.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the current crypto winter started far earlier than most market participants realized.

In a recent article on X, Hougan argued that the drop effectively started in January 2025, even though strong institutional flows hid the damage across much of the market.

Bitcoin BTC $76 148 24h volatility: 2.8% Market cap: $1.52 T Vol. 24h: $74.78 B is currently 40% down from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 while Ethereum ETH $2 262 24h volatility: 1.2% Market cap: $273.86 B Vol. 24h: $45.46 B has dropped 53%.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached “extreme fear” levels, which places the market in winter conditions, explained Hougan.

The expert noted that price action over the past year followed two separate timelines.

 

Retail focused assets entered a bear phase early in 2025, but cryptocurrencies accessible to institutions stayed supported until much later.

 

Bitcoin and Ethereum benefited from ETF and Digital Asset Treasury inflows throughout the year and dropped around 10.3% to 19.9%.

Meanwhile, many altcoins plunged between 61.9% and 74.7% due to lack of institutional access.

Hougan noted that ETFs and related vehicles acquired about 744,417 BTC during this period, worth roughly $75 billion.

He argued that without this demand, Bitcoin could have traded closer to a 60% drawdown much earlier.

The Bitwise exec added that crypto winters tend to last around 13 months. He believes the market is likely closer to the end of the pullback than the start.

Bitcoin Volatility Continues

Bitcoin fell as low as $73,000 on February 3 before rebounding above $76,000 after a US funding bill passed, averting a government shutdown and easing near-term macro risk.

However, Santiment reported roughly $30 million in DeFi liquidations and suggested ongoing leverage cleanup.

 

Over the past week, Bitcoin has declined nearly 14%. The current price levels are below where Bitcoin traded during the Trump inauguration in January 2025.

It is near zones tested during the trade war announcement last April.

Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have sold about 50,181 coins over the past two weeks.

At the same time, retail addresses have been buying the dips. Historically, this condition of large holder selling and retail buying has not supported sustained market growth.

While some analysts expect the bear phase to last another six to nine months, many note that regulatory clarity could limit drop compared with past cycles, where Bitcoin drawdowns reached 80%.

0
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.
Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.
Trade now!

You may also like

AI data center layout draws investor attention! Qualcomm (QCOM.US) stock price climbs to a two-month high

As investors increasingly favor Qualcomm's strategy of entering the artificial intelligence (AI) data center infrastructure sector, the chip manufacturer is receiving more attention.

智通财经2026/09/16 08:16
AI data center layout draws investor attention! Qualcomm (QCOM.US) stock price climbs to a two-month high

The 5% Era of US Treasury Bonds Arrives: No Short-term "Explosions", but Pressure May Appear in 12 to 18 Months

The real impact of high interest rates lies in their duration. A large amount of debt issued at 2%-3% in 2020-2021 is now facing the pressure of being rolled over at a cost of 6%-8%, and this shock will concentrate and erupt in 12-18 months. The US housing market will bear the brunt, while commercial real estate, highly leveraged companies, and private equity-backed firms are also at serious risk. If high rates persist for more than half a year, the market’s tolerance will be completely exhausted.

华尔街见闻2026/09/16 07:41