QCP: Bitcoin briefly dropped to $72,900 before rebounding to around $75k
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QCP released a briefing stating that bitcoin has experienced increased volatility recently, dropping to a low of around $72,900, marking a new low since the US election. It then rebounded as the US House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion funding bill, ending part of the government shutdown, and is currently attempting to return above $75,000. Although the risk of a government shutdown has temporarily eased, funding for Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, so a new deadline risk remains. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and his stance could impact the performance of risk assets and the US dollar. Data from the options market shows that implied volatility remains high, and there is a clear sense of concern about the risk of a sharp decline. Analysis suggests that $75,000 is a key turning point; if it holds and funding conditions normalize, risk may increase. If it breaks below, the market may shift to a defensive posture.
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