Cigna's 2026 performance forecast falls short of Wall Street expectations
Special Coverage: Focus on U.S. Stock Q4 2025 Earnings Reports
Cigna released its 2026 earnings and revenue forecast on Thursday, falling short of Wall Street expectations, indicating the company continues to face persistent medical cost and profit margin pressures.
Over the past two years, U.S. insurance companies have generally faced high-cost challenges, due to increased demand for medical services under government-supported health insurance plans.
However, Cigna's business structure differs from its peers: the company relies more on its pharmacy benefit business and employer-sponsored health plans. It no longer offers “Medicare Advantage” plans for individuals aged 65 and older or people with disabilities, and has taken measures to scale back business related to “Obamacare.”
Despite a quarter-over-quarter increase in medical costs, growth in Cigna’s health services division and specialty pharmacy business still drove its Q4 performance to be better than expected.
Its health services division, Evernorth, which is responsible for pharmacy benefit management, saw revenue grow by 20% to $36.3 billion, mainly due to deepened cooperation with existing clients and the expansion of new business.
Its specialty pharmacy business, Accredo, which mainly handles high-cost drugs, saw continued growth in the use of biosimilars.
This quarter, Cigna’s medical loss ratio (the proportion of premiums spent on medical care) was 88%. According to LSEG data, analysts had previously expected this ratio to be 87.34%.
The company stated that the rise in medical costs was primarily driven by its individual and family health plan business.
Cigna expects adjusted revenue for 2026 to be about $280 billion, below the market expectation of $283.86 billion. The company’s 2025 revenue was $274.9 billion.
Industry leaders like UnitedHealth Group and Elevance Health have previously warned that their revenues will decline in 2026.
Cigna also forecasted that adjusted earnings per share for 2026 would be at least $30.25, lower than the market expectation of $30.36.
The company expects the annual medical loss ratio for 2026 to be between 83.7% and 84.7%, while analysts had previously expected the ratio to be 83.78%.
However, the company’s Q4 adjusted earnings per share reached $8.08, exceeding the market expectation of $7.88.
Editor: Guo Mingyu
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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