CryptoQuant says bitcoin could fall to $60,000 as downturn worsens beyond 2022 bear market
Bitcoin could fall toward $60,000 as onchain data signals the current downturn is deepening and now looks worse than the early phase of the 2022 bear market, according to CryptoQuant.
The firm said Wednesday its Bull Score Index has dropped to zero, the most bearish reading possible. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in early October when the index stood at 80, but the metric turned bearish after the Oct. 10 liquidation event and continued falling as the price slid further. The next major support zone lies between $70,000 and $60,000, CryptoQuant said.
The $60,000 level "could take a few months" as it represents the lower end of the target range, and between $60,000 and $70,000 there are key support areas such as the previous cycle all-time high of $69,000 and bitcoin’s production cost of roughly $65,000–$70,000, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, told The Block.
Bitcoin continues to fall on Thursday and is currently trading around $67,350, according to The Block’s BTC price page.
Crypto's 'broad structural weakness'
Overall, bitcoin’s continued price decline signals what CryptoQuant described as “broad structural weakness” in the crypto market.
A major driver of the weakness is a sharp reversal in institutional demand. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were net buyers of more than 46,000 BTC at this time last year, but in 2026, they have turned into net sellers, reducing holdings by roughly 10,600 BTC, CryptoQuant said. That represents a demand gap of roughly 56,000 BTC compared with 2025 and is contributing to persistent selling pressure, the firm added.
U.S. retail investor participation has also remained subdued despite the price decline. The Coinbase premium — a metric comparing bitcoin prices on Coinbase versus global exchanges — has stayed negative since mid-October, CryptoQuant noted. Historically, sustained bull markets have coincided with a positive premium driven by strong U.S. demand, but CryptoQuant said that dynamic is no longer present.
Liquidity conditions across crypto markets are tightening at the same time. The 60-day growth of Tether’s USDT stablecoin market capitalization has turned negative by $133 million, marking the first contraction since October 2023, CryptoQuant said. Stablecoin expansion had previously peaked at $15.9 billion in late October 2025, and its reversal is consistent with liquidity contraction typically seen during bear market phases, the firm added.
Long-term demand growth has also collapsed sharply. Over the past four months, bitcoin’s annual spot demand growth has fallen from 1.1 million BTC to just 77,000 BTC — a 93% decline, CryptoQuant said. The firm added that the data suggests most of the demand growth from this cycle has already occurred, creating a bearish backdrop for prices.
Technical indicators are also reinforcing the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, confirming a downward trend, CryptoQuant said. Since breaking below the level on Nov. 12, 2025, the price has declined 23% over 83 days.
"This performance is worse than at the start of the previous bear market in January 2022, when prices had declined by only 6% after 83 days," CryptoQuant concluded.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The 5% U.S. Treasury yield storm is coming! The refinancing time bomb countdown begins—who will be the first victim?
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, reaching a new high since 2007. The longer high interest rates persist, the greater the refinancing pressure will be on real estate companies, commercial real estate, and highly indebted firms, with systemic risks likely to accelerate and emerge within the next 12 to 18 months.
Don't Fight the Profit Cycle! Will U.S. Stocks Break 8,000 Points This Year?
Jefferies predicts that, driven by the dual engines of the AI investment boom and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index is expected to soar to 8,000 points by the end of 2026 and further reach 9,000 points in 2027. AI-driven profit expansion has spread from the "Magnificent Seven" to the entire market, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast to surge by 35% this year, far exceeding market consensus—marking the strongest earnings supercycle since 1995! The only real threat: if US Treasury yields continue to spike, the risk of valuation compression cannot be ignored.
Will “continual learning” AI extend the memory “shortage” until 2031?
Citi believes that as AI enters the era of "continuous learning" beyond simple training and inference stages, demand for HBM, server DDR5, and enterprise SSDs (eSSD) will experience explosive and simultaneous growth starting from 2027. While demand will surge rapidly, the supply side is constrained by HBM production capacity usage and slower technology migration, leading to expansion lagging far behind demand. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue until 2031.
Crypto prices
More
