Goldman Sachs Expects Nvidia Q4 Revenue to Reach $67.3 Billion, Sets $250 Target Price
Nvidia shareholders are eagerly awaiting the quarterly earnings report to be released on February 25. Amid intensifying competition with Broadcom, this earnings report carries particular significance, but Goldman Sachs believes Nvidia is likely to deliver a $2 billion revenue “surprise.”
Goldman Sachs analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 to reach $67.3 billion, and that the company will also surpass market expectations in terms of profitability.
“We expect Nvidia’s revenue in the fourth quarter to exceed expectations by about $2 billion, and our forecast for first quarter revenue is also 8% higher than the market consensus.”
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research report, “Our forecasts for earnings per share (EPS) in the fourth and first quarters are 5% and 9% higher, respectively, than the market consensus.”
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs also cautions that the market may have already priced in strong quarterly results, and investors’ focus may shift from short-term performance to guidance for 2026 and 2027.
Nvidia’s “bar” has been set very high
In 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, sparking a boom in the development of AI chatbots and driving enormous demand for Nvidia’s high-performance, next-generation graphics processing units (GPUs). This shift took many by surprise. As the company continued to deliver better-than-expected results quarter after quarter and raised guidance, investors flocked in, driving up the stock price.
Now, most portfolios already include Nvidia, and the room for additional capital from outside the market to push the stock price significantly higher is relatively limited.
Goldman Sachs pointed out: “We believe that upward expectations for Nvidia’s 2026 (CY26) performance have largely been priced in at current stock levels, and whether the stock can continue to outperform will depend on the revenue visibility for 2027 (CY27).”
This means that simply delivering higher quarterly revenue and profitability may no longer be enough to convince investors to increase their positions. The market needs to see that demand for this year is firmly secured, and that the rollout of the company’s latest generation chip, Vera Rubin, is progressing smoothly.
Goldman Sachs: Nvidia’s stock price still has 35% upside potential
Goldman Sachs believes that multiple catalysts have the potential to drive Nvidia’s stock price higher, thus assigning a price target of $250, about 35% higher than the closing price on February 6.
Major catalysts for 2026 include:
Hyperscaler capital expenditures: Goldman Sachs expects capex to rise to over $527 billion, up from $394 billion in 2025. Considering Alphabet’s (the parent company) disclosed annual spending of $200 billion and $185 billion, this forecast may still be conservative.
Upside potential for data center business guidance: Nvidia expects cumulative data center revenue to reach $500 billion by 2026, while Goldman Sachs’ forecast is “significantly higher than market consensus.” Any statements regarding 2027 visibility could be positive.
Non-hyperscaler customer demand: Increased GPU demand from large model companies such as OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude) may provide support for the stock price; additionally, Goldman Sachs is also watching for demand growth at the sovereign nation level.
Competition with ASIC and AMD: To reduce reliance on Nvidia, some hyperscale customers are working with Broadcom and Marvell to develop custom ASIC chips, while AMD’s MI455X is also becoming more competitive. If Nvidia strengthens its CUDA ecosystem and other advantages, it will help stabilize market confidence.
Rubin chip volume ramp-up in 2026: Nvidia is replacing the Blackwell series with the higher-performing, more efficient Rubin. At CES in January, the company stated that Rubin had entered production and would begin ramping up this year; any positive progress could boost the stock price.
Goldman Sachs’ forecasts for future revenue and profitability
Analysts expect Rubin GPUs to begin shipping in the third quarter of 2026, with significant volume ramp-up in the fourth quarter and beyond, supporting strong company growth at least through 2028.
Goldman Sachs forecasts (through 2028):
2026: Revenue $215.1 billion / EPS $4.49
2027: Revenue $382.9 billion / EPS $8.75
2028: Revenue $513.0 billion / EPS $12.13
If the above path materializes, it will provide a solid foundation for continued stock price appreciation.
At CES this January, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated: “About $10 trillion of computing infrastructure over the past decade is being upgraded to this new form of computing; and in the $100 trillion industry, several percentage points of R&D budgets are shifting toward artificial intelligence.”
Potential risks cannot be ignored
Nvidia is not without risks. Its stock beta is 2.28, meaning its price swings are about 2.28 times those of the S&P 500 index.
Key risks highlighted by Goldman Sachs include:
Slowdown in AI infrastructure investment: If financing tightens, IT budgets may be cut;
Market share erosion: If tensor processor ASICs and AMD capture more demand, Nvidia’s market share could drop from 80%–85% to 70%–80%;
Margin pressure: Intensifying competition could drive prices down;
Supply bottlenecks: If production is disrupted, supply may not keep up with demand.
Editor: Chen Yujia
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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