Analysis: Bitcoin market sentiment hits historic low, contrarian investors believe $60,000 is the BTC bottom
PANews, February 10th – According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has dropped to a historic low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom for this cycle. Data shows that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to a record low of 7 last weekend, indicating the market is in an "extreme fear" state. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that both this indicator and the Relative Strength Index show the market is deeply oversold, a situation similar to the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 pandemic crash, which could create conditions for a rebound. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of more than $5.45 billions in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billions in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short squeeze rally.
However, structural risks in the market still exist. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin remains well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating the market is still dominated by selling pressure. The net taker volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the taker buy/sell ratio on a certain exchange has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market. Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms are usually formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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