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The game between tariffs and interest rates puts de-inflation in a dilemma

The game between tariffs and interest rates puts de-inflation in a dilemma

汇通财经汇通财经2026/02/10 10:03
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⑴ A blog post published by economists on Tuesday pointed out that Trump's tariff remarks are dragging down regional growth and inflation, but the industries most affected are also highly sensitive to interest rate changes. ⑵ The study concluded that the decline in demand caused by tariffs outweighs any supply-side effects that push up inflation, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices. ⑶ The article specifically quantifies that about a year and a half after a tariff-related trade shock that leads to a 1% decrease in regional exports, the consumer price level will drop by approximately 0.1%. ⑷ The latest data shows that during the most recent three-month period for which data is available, the region's export value fell by about 6.5% year-on-year. ⑸ This finding is significant because the region's inflation rate in January has already dropped to 1.7%, below the 2% target, and some policymakers are concerned that inflation may fall further. ⑹ The good news for the region is that the industries most affected by tariffs, such as machinery, automobiles, and chemicals, are also the most responsive to changes in interest rates. ⑺ The research points out that although output may decline sharply due to tariffs, it will also expand strongly due to lower borrowing costs. ⑻ Economists stated that this pattern holds true in about 60% of the industries they studied, which account for about 50% of the region's average total industrial output and 50% of its total goods exports.
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