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Oil prices are approaching $110 per barrel, with only seven and a half weeks left before the midterm elections, and the probability of the Democratic Party regaining the Senate has surpassed 50%. Political and economic pressures are forcing the White House to seek relief. Meanwhile, the structural appreciation of the yen poses an even deeper global risk—the correction in the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, large-scale Japanese capital repatriation, and the forced unwinding of carry trades are all likely to simultaneously push up European and American bond yields and awaken the VIX. A cross-asset volatility storm may already be brewing.

BMO expects consecutive rate hikes in October and December, with a total of three increases potentially wiping out all rate cut gains for 2025. Vanguard believes "three consecutive hikes" is a reasonable starting point, but the actual number could be as high as six. There are historical exceptions: in 1997, the Federal Reserve raised rates only once and took no further action for the following 18 months. Meanwhile, trillion-dollar debt financing by AI giants, private credit exposure in the insurance industry, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% are the most dangerous pressure points in this rate hike cycle.

Goldman Sachs has shifted from predicting a rate hold to betting on a 25 basis point hike next week, stating that this change is not due to particularly bad inflation data—the August CPI was not perfect, but it wasn’t alarming either. The real key is that hawkish comments from Waller have already shaped market expectations: "If the inflation data isn’t perfect, there will be a rate hike." If the Federal Reserve backs down now, its credibility will suffer a serious blow and long-term interest rates could react sharply and immediately.