SpaceX IPO Countdown: Analyst Meeting to Be Held This Week, Valuation of 1.75 Trillion to Be Tested

SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans at an unprecedented pace. This aerospace company under Elon Musk held a closed three-day analyst meeting this week, with only about two months left before its targeted IPO window at the end of June—a key phase for what could potentially become a record-breaking global IPO.

According to sources cited by the media, the meeting itinerary spanned from the Starbase launch site in Texas to the Memphis data center in Tennessee, covering the aerospace, satellite, and artificial intelligence infrastructure businesses. SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation; if successful, it would become the largest IPO ever.

However, a tricky valuation challenge stands in the way of this financing. In February, Musk merged xAI with SpaceX, integrating rocket launches, Starlink satellites, the X social platform, and the Grok AI chatbot into a single entity—a behemoth tech-aerospace conglomerate so unprecedented that traditional valuation frameworks are difficult to apply. Some institutional investors have begun looking to AI infrastructure companies like Palantir and GE Vernova as valuation benchmarks, rather than established peers like Boeing or AT&T.

Meanwhile, Musk has reserved about 30% of share allocations for retail investors, opening subscription channels to retail investors from the UK, European Union, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Korea, striving to build a broader investor base for this historic listing.

Three Days Behind Closed Doors: IPO Process Accelerates

The analyst meeting kicked off on Tuesday with a full-day tour and briefing at the Starbase launch facility in Boca Chica, Texas. On Wednesday, another group of analysts representing institutional investors from mutual funds and pension plans attended a separate briefing at Starbase. On Thursday, the analysts were invited to the Colossus data center in Memphis to learn about progress on the company’s "Macrohard" project.

Notably, media cited sources as saying attendees had to hand over electronic devices before entering the venue. All three sources requested anonymity as the information is not yet public, and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.

About two weeks after the analyst meeting concludes, SpaceX is expected to host a specialized "Modeling Day" session for select Wall Street analysts—some of whose banks are also underwriters for this IPO. At that time, the company will provide analysts with detailed financial forecasts, business logic, and key data to aid in building profit models ahead of the IPO. Some invited analysts have already received SpaceX’s confidential registration documents, but according to sources, the information they contain is limited.

Valuation Challenge: Justifying $1.75 Trillion

For SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen, the next two months are a decisive window—he must convince Wall Street’s top analysts and ultimate investors that the company is truly worth the nearly unimaginable $1.75 trillion valuation.

The February merger of xAI and SpaceX brought together Musk’s rocket business, Starlink satellite internet, X social media platform, and Grok AI chatbot into an entirely new tech-aerospace conglomerate—a combination with few precedents in commercial history and, as a result, an extremely complex valuation task.

At least one major institutional investor, seeking a reference framework to understand the valuation logic, has abandoned comparisons to traditional aerospace and telecom giants like Boeing and AT&T and instead uses Palantir Technologies, GE Vernova, Vertiv, and other AI infrastructure companies as benchmarks, to underpin the rationale for the $75 billion capital raise and high valuation.

Retail Investor Strategy: Musk’s 30% Allocation Plan

Beyond institutional roadshows, Musk is making retail investors a core part of the IPO strategy. He plans to allocate about 30% of IPO shares to retail investors and, after the roadshow launches in the week of June 8, will invite 1,500 retail investors to tour Starbase.

Musk also plans to open subscription channels to retail investors in the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Korea, further expanding the geographic coverage of the potential investor base. However, the final structure and retail allocation ratio will be confirmed before the IPO officially launches.

In terms of underwriting, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs are acting as the main bookrunners, with 16 additional banks playing smaller roles to cover institutional, retail, and international channels.