Bitunix Analyst: Global Inflation Continues to Heat Up, Central Bank Policies Beginning to Tighten in Unison, Market Repricing for "High-Rate Regime"

BlockBeats News, May 14th. Market risk appetite has started to shift noticeably. The US April PPI increased by 1.4% for the quarter and 6% for the year, both achieving the largest gain since 2022, indicating that cost pressures on the corporate side are rapidly transmitting to the consumer side. Meanwhile, Fed official Collins publicly stated that if inflation cannot be effectively cooled down, further interest rate hikes are not ruled out, representing a rapid correction of the market's previous expectation of a rate cut cycle in 2026. Morgan Stanley further warned that US inflation may peak in May to June, with triple pressures from energy, tariffs, and housing costs synchronously driving up the price system.

In addition to the US, the Bank of Japan has also begun to show stronger signals of policy shift. BOJ board member Imai has formally shifted from being dovish to hawkish, advocating for an early rate hike if the economy does not show a significant slowdown. The market has currently priced in a 75% probability of a rate hike in Japan in June, leading to a rapid rebound of the yen. This indicates that the policy direction of major central banks worldwide is gradually shifting from the past "wait-and-cut" to "reinforce against re-inflation." Especially after the ongoing escalation of the situation in Iran has driven up energy prices, the market is beginning to worry that energy-input inflation will once again spread to the global manufacturing, logistics, and consumption chains.

Regarding risk assets, the market structure is showing significant differentiation. NVIDIA, Apple, and Google have simultaneously hit new all-time highs, indicating that AI and large-cap tech stocks continue to attract concentrated global funds. However, this concentration of funds also means that the market is relying on a few highly liquid core assets to support risk sentiment. On the other hand, OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, reflecting lingering concerns about global economic growth slowing down. The market is currently in an environment of "high inflation + growth slowdown."

As for the crypto market, BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation structure, but the market is beginning to reassess whether "high-rate long-termization" will compress the valuation space of risk assets. Recent funds have not significantly exited the crypto market, but liquidity is more concentrated in BTC and large mainstream assets, while the receiving capacity of mid- and small-cap altcoins continues to decline. If subsequent US inflation data and energy prices continue to rise, the market will begin to reevaluate the Fed's liquidity cycle, at which point crypto market volatility and liquidation risks may simultaneously amplify.