ING: UK inflation may peak slightly below 4% in the second half of this year

According to Golden Ten Data on May 20, ING analyst James Smith stated in a report that the UK inflation rate may remain between 3.5% and 4% in the second half of 2026, with the peak slightly below 4%. Data show that the annualized headline inflation rate slowed from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April, and the annualized core inflation rate slowed from 3.1% in March to 2.5%. He said these figures “should help alleviate some concerns that the upcoming energy shock is unlikely to trigger a round of ‘second-round effects’, or at least not as notably as it did four years ago.”