Guangda Futures 0521 Gold Review: US-Iran Negotiation Expectations Strengthen, Gold Price Rebounds in the Short Term
On May 20th, COMEX gold first fell and then rose, surging rapidly during the session and closing at $4,546.2 per ounce, up 0.78%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened high and moved higher, closing at 995.92 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.88%.
On the geopolitical front, Trump stated on Wednesday that negotiations between the US and Iran have entered the "final stage," and reiterated that war would be "very swift." Meanwhile, media reports indicated that some oil tankers have begun transiting through the Strait of Hormuz again. According to reports, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated on Wednesday that, in the past 24 hours, 26 ships—including oil tankers, container ships, and other merchant vessels—have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination from Iran. Affected by these developments, the US dollar and US Treasury yields retreated slightly, with gold finding support below. However, since geopolitical news remains volatile, it is necessary to be cautious about future developments' impacts on gold prices.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's April FOMC meeting released yesterday showed that participants generally believed that, due to persistently high inflation data and uncertainties regarding the duration of Middle East conflicts and their economic impact, the length of holding rates steady might exceed previous expectations. If a US-Iran conflict keeps inflation elevated, a rate hike might indeed be necessary. However, as rate hike expectations have already been partially priced in, the impact on gold prices is limited. Looking ahead, the US-Iran conflict remains the dominant factor for gold, and before uncertainties are effectively alleviated, investors are advised to lower expectations for gold prices in the first half of the year.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Shimeng Shi
Professional Qualification: F03097365
Trading Consultant Qualification: Z0017563
Editor: Henan Zhu
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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