Wintermute extends trading infrastructure into prediction markets

Wintermute, the London-based algorithmic trading firm handling more than $3.5 trillion in annual volume, has begun providing two−sided liquidity on prediction markets, the company said on Friday.

The company is quoting continuous bid and offer prices across active event contracts on "leading venues," which together process more than $20 billion in monthly volume as of early 2026, according to a statement.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets carry demand characteristics typically associated with larger asset classes, while liquidity conditions remain at an earlier stage of development.

"For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity," Ostrovskis said in the statement. "That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices. That is where Wintermute can add value."

The firm’s entry comes as peers in digital asset market-making expand into the same segment. Jump Trading has been reported to be providing market-making services to Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for equity stakes, while Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has said the company is exploring liquidity provision arrangements with both platforms.

Polymarket and Kalshi have together crossed $150 billion in cumulative lifetime volume as of April, according to The Block’s data.

Wintermute said the overlap between prediction markets and digital asset infrastructure is significant, citing the use of stablecoins, public blockchains, and crypto-native settlement systems across several venues. The firm said these markets require execution, custody, collateral, and risk management capabilities similar to those it operates across spot, derivatives, DeFi, and OTC trading.