The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before June 30" on Polymarket drops to 25%, down 25% in a single week.
The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before June 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 25%, down 25% in a single week. As of now, the total trading volume for this event has nearly reached $12 million.
The event contract rules are: If IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any day from the market creation date until June 30, 2026, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". The daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Previously, forces of two countries clashed near the Strait of Hormuz again, but earlier today Trump stated that negotiations with Iran over a temporary peace agreement would "turn out very well." He added that if Washington unfreezes billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request, he would face potential criticism and needs to strike a balance between the two sides. Last Friday, Trump said he would make a "final decision," but as both sides continue to negotiate details such as Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (which may require mine clearance first), he has postponed this decision.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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