Global demand remains weak, and Iranian crude oil trades at a discount to Brent
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- According to trade sources, the price of Iranian crude oil has turned to a discount against Brent crude oil for the first time since April. At the same time, the premium of Russian ESPO crude for June narrowed to about $3-4 over Brent, compared to $4-5 last month, indicating that traders are lowering prices to attract buyers amid weak demand.
- Data from Kpler shows that Russian crude oil imports have fallen to 1.04 million barrels per day, the lowest level since August. This further confirms the downward pressure on global crude oil demand. Coupled with market concerns triggered by Trump’s tariff rhetoric, energy trade flows are experiencing a substantial slowdown.
- When prompt discounts and import volumes simultaneously decline, the market usually tends to turn defensive. The short-term fluctuation center of oil prices may move lower, and it will be important going forward to monitor changes in inventories in major consumer countries and whether there are new disruptions on the supply side due to geopolitics.
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