US Dollar: Services strength and Fed stance – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that stronger ISM services data and higher US rates are shaping the backdrop for the US Dollar. The report notes that ISM services rose above expectations, driven by new orders and business activity, while employment stayed in contraction. The authors stress that the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent and sees no immediate case to change interest rates.
ISM services and Fed guidance
"Rates sold off on Wednesday, continuing to move higher after additional proposed tariffs on 60 countries were announced overnight."
"ADP rose in line with consensus, showing signs of labor market stabilization. ISM services came in above consensus at 54.5, stemming from increases in new orders and business activity."
"Note that even though the ISM index registered a notable m/m increase it remains well-below the pre-Covid norm."
"Fed's Williams spoke, saying that he does not see an argument to change interest rates right now and remains data-dependent."
"News from Iran negotiations showed that their response to the US has not been sent yet. Markets will remain largely focused on geopolitical news, while jobless claims and productivity & ULC data will be released on Thursday. Barkin, Bowman and Daly are all on the docket ahead of the blackout period which starts on Friday night."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
BUILDon rallies as holders hit record 87,320 – Can B extend its gains?
Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Chief: "Zero-Day Options" Suppress U.S. Stock Volatility, Technology and Energy Remain the Best Choices
The S&P 500 has experienced intraday fluctuations of less than 1% for 27 consecutive trading days, marking the longest period of low volatility since the pandemic. Goldman Sachs warns that this "calm" is the result of zero-day options strategies forcibly locking in the market, and once a catalyst emerges, the compressed volatility energy will be released all at once. Meanwhile, expectations for a rate hike in September are rising, market sentiment has dropped to its lowest point of the year, and fiscal sustainability risks loom large—is this pot of heating water going to boil for much longer?
Balancer eyes wind-down after restructuring fails to revive revenue
Is a new wave of sell-offs approaching? The ultimate rival of the AI bull market emerges—The "global anchor of asset pricing" breaks through the 5% super threshold
After the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks back above the critical 5% mark, it is more likely to usher in a period of high-level tug-of-war and accelerated asset differentiation. Especially before energy shocks and the significantly eased large-scale expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the conditions to quickly replicate the sharp yield decline seen at the end of 2023 are not yet fully in place.
Crypto prices
More
