War breaks through the employment barrier as US jobless claims reach a four-month high

(1) The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that, for the week ending May 30, the number of first-time unemployment benefit claims increased by 13,000 to 225,000—the highest level since the outbreak of the Iran war in early February. Institutional survey analysts had expected only 211,000. (2) Although the U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%, the labor market has entered what economists call a "low hiring, low firing" stalemate, with many unemployed people struggling to find new jobs. (3) The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, international oil prices have soared by approximately 50%. The average U.S. gasoline price increased from under $3 at the end of February to $4.24 per gallon, with consumer-level inflation rising by 3.8% year-on-year—the largest increase in three years. (4) U.S. wholesale prices have surged by 6% year-on-year, the highest level in more than three years. Inflation is now above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at its last meeting, and most analysts predict no rate cuts in the short term, with some policymakers even considering rate hikes within the year. (5) Recent companies laying off employees include Verizon, United Parcel Service, Amazon, Disney, Starbucks, and Walmart. Combined with market concerns triggered by Trump's tariff comments and the impact of federal government layoffs, U.S. employers added fewer than 200,000 new jobs last year, far below about 1.5 million in 2024.