The U.S. Treasury market faces the test of Friday's employment report: the double-edged sword of high yields and diverging inflation expectations

(1) Over the past three months, oil prices and US Treasury yields have climbed in tandem, but Wall Street is concerned that investors are losing patience and demanding higher returns. While higher US Treasury rates may benefit investors, they could also trigger a vicious cycle—more of the income of the US economy, households, and businesses would be spent on interest payments, while the stock market’s upward momentum could be curbed (the S&P 500 has risen nearly 27% in a year). (2) Despite the average gasoline price rising to $4.26 per gallon, the bond market is betting that the inflation rebound won't last. The key 10-year breakeven inflation rate has increased by just about 10 basis points since February, to 2.39%, and according to LPL Financial strategists, this level still hasn’t shaken confidence in the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield once surged 70 basis points and last month hit a high not seen since January 2025, approaching 5%. (3) Friday’s jobs report will be a major test. NATIXIS strategists pointed out that recent data only shows “stabilization”; slowing wage growth, shrinking real incomes, and persistent inflation may drag on growth and push yields lower. If the data disappoints the market, it could trigger panic; if inflation proves stubborn and employment remains steady, the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged or even lay groundwork for rate hikes. LPL strategists said the market may expect a “soft landing +”, meaning the economy remains resilient but yields stay high—the impact of high oil prices has yet to be fully felt, and the longer it persists, the higher the odds of an economic slowdown.