Super Central Bank Week Approaches: ECB Rate Hike, US Inflation, and Iranian Situation All in Focus

⑴ Next week will see a flurry of event-driven activity in global markets. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Thursday. Investors have fully priced in two rate hikes before the end of the year, but more hawkish signals from the ECB could reshape expectations. Germany will release industrial output, trade statistics, and final inflation data for May.⑵ U.S. inflation data takes center stage, with May's CPI set to be announced on Wednesday. Market forecasts predict a 0.5% month-over-month increase overall and 0.3% for the core reading. The same day will feature a $3.9 billion auction of 10-year Treasury bonds. Thursday will see the release of PPI and weekly jobless claims data. Federal Reserve officials have entered a blackout period ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.⑶ The Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement and guidance will set the medium-term tone for the Canadian dollar. The UK will release a host of data on Friday, including April GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, as well as trade statistics. In China, Tuesday will bring May's trade balance release, while Wednesday will feature inflation data. Japan will announce final Q1 GDP and May's PPI.