WTO: Commodity trade remains resilient amid pressures from Middle East conflicts and high energy prices

The current barometer index stands at 101.7, above the baseline value of 100, indicating that trade volume remains above trend levels. Data shows that strong growth in demand for electronic components related to artificial intelligence investment has pushed the electronic components index up to 105.5, making it an important driver of trade support. Meanwhile, both the air freight and container shipping indices continue to expand. According to the World Trade Organization, under the baseline scenario, global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026; if high energy prices persist, growth may slow to 1.4%, while artificial intelligence investment could contribute an additional 0.5 percentage points to growth.