Monday morning early indications on FX moves: Eyes on Japanese intervention

Early indicative moves:

• AUD/USD — 0.7024, off 21 pips (-0.30%)
• NZD/USD — 0.5784, down 12 pips (-0.21%)
• GBP/USD — 1.3323, down 16 pips (-0.12%)
• EUR/USD — 1.1511, off 8 pips (-0.07%)
• USD/CHF — 0.7959, down 3 pips (-0.04%)
• USD/JPY — 160.24, down 5 pips (-0.03%)
• USD/CAD — 1.3929, down 4 pips (-0.03%)

The first indicative prints are in as Asia gets going, and the early lean is a soft-risk tone — the Aussie and Kiwi are weighed lower while the dollar is mixed against the rest of the majors. Liquidity is thin at the Sunday open as usual so the caveats apply. That said, the direction of the moves is fitting with the brutal selloff in stocks on Friday and the fighting in the Middle East. If anything, I expect it to get worse.

The spot to watch is USD/JPY. The pair rose above 160.00 on Friday and that puts us into the MoF intervention zone. There was a brief drop lower on Friday but it didn't look like intervention once the dust cleared.