USD/JPY: Yield spread keeps pair on upward path – Societe Generale

After the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks back above the critical 5% mark, it is more likely to usher in a period of high-level tug-of-war and accelerated asset differentiation. Especially before energy shocks and the significantly eased large-scale expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the conditions to quickly replicate the sharp yield decline seen at the end of 2023 are not yet fully in place.

Anthropic's economics team has released an AI economic scenario model, centered around three scenarios: moderate and gradual growth, transformative changes with GDP doubling, and an extreme situation with 15% annual growth but massive job losses among knowledge workers. The model treats work as "bundles of tasks" and analyzes AI’s enhancement and substitution effects on different types of tasks. Anthropic emphasizes that the economic outlook for 2030 is not predetermined; the key lies in how the dividends from AI are widely shared.

Nick Timiraos believes that after the higher-than-expected August CPI, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this week has surged, while Waller’s hawkish stance on inflation has left himself almost "no leeway." With seven weeks before the election, whether or not Waller raises rates will directly test how long Trump's “trust” in him can last. Previously, Waller maintained a balance between the White House and the Federal Reserve by “talking less and avoiding provocation,” but after this meeting, silence will no longer serve as his shield.

U.S. President Trump opposes setting guardrails for artificial intelligence (AI), putting him at odds with a growing number of bipartisan lawmakers. As the midterm elections approach, voters' concerns about AI safety have intensified their doubts about this technology.