Exchange Alpha: Bitcoin Has Entered a Deep Correction Phase, and Market Characteristics of Rebound and Position Reduction Are Becoming More Evident

Jinse Finance reported that according to Alpha's latest report, Bitcoin has entered a deeper adjustment phase, with the recent decline mainly influenced by record outflows from spot ETFs, the deleveraging of derivatives, and continued pressure from a high-interest macro environment. Currently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains above 4.45%, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have further diminished. On-chain and capital flow data indicate the market is now closer to a “distribution phase” rather than “panic selling.” The cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading has shifted from strong accumulation between April and May to a significant negative, indicating that recent buyers continue to exit the market. The cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in an unrealized loss position, adding strong selling pressure for any subsequent rebound. As the price gradually approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the market’s tendency to reduce positions during rebounds becomes increasingly evident.