Analysis suggests the worst phase for bitcoin may be nearing its end, as key on-chain indicators approach historical bottom ranges.

BlockBeats reported on June 8 that after last week's significant sell-off, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin—the MVRV Z-Score—is approaching the historical bear market bottom range, indicating that market prices are gradually nearing the on-chain realized value, and the worst phase of the decline may be close to ending.

Data shows that the current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, close to the zero axis, which has historically been considered the "green accumulation zone." During previous bear markets in 2011-2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator reached its bottom after dropping to near zero or briefly below zero and subsequently initiated a new upward cycle.

The MVRV Z-Score is used to measure the deviation between Bitcoin's current market value and its realized value. When the market price is significantly higher than the realized value, it indicates that Bitcoin is relatively expensive; conversely, when the price is close to or below the realized value, it suggests the market is entering an undervalued zone.

However, analysts believe the market may not have formed an absolute bottom yet. On-chain data shows the short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains high at 1.29. The two have not yet converged as they did at the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022.

This means long-term holders still hold substantial unrealized gains, and the market may need further adjustment to establish a typical bear market bottom. However, after the crypto market evaporated hundreds of billions of dollars in market value last week, several signals that historically indicate market recovery have already begun to emerge.