Trump's economic approval rating drops to a new low during his term, raising concerns among Republicans about the prospects for the midterm elections

BlockBeats News, June 8 – The latest poll shows that due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed inflationary pressures, U.S. President Trump's support rate on economic issues has dropped to its lowest point of this term, putting his long-standing "economic card" to the test.

The market generally expects that, due to the Iran conflict and tight supply chains, the U.S. inflation rate may return to 4% for the first time since 2023. Although the White House has tried to alleviate market concerns by increasing tax rebates and emphasizing energy reserves, the continuous rise in oil prices has weakened the effectiveness of these policies.

Recently, Trump stated he would not adjust his Iran policy due to election pressure and downplayed the impact of price fluctuations, which has caused concern among some Republicans. Former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney warned that if U.S. gasoline prices remain above $4 per gallon before Labor Day, the Republican Party could face "huge trouble" in the midterm elections.

Treasury Secretary Besant believes that as the situation stabilizes, energy prices will quickly fall back. However, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas commented that even if the conflict cools, damaged energy infrastructure and geopolitical risk premiums could keep oil prices elevated, continuing to squeeze consumer spending.

Although the AI investment boom has driven manufacturing expansion and U.S. stocks have repeatedly hit new highs, analysts point out that the U.S. economy is showing signs of a "K-shaped recovery," with capital markets benefiting significantly while real household income has shrunk for the first time in nearly three years. Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that if the pressure of living costs faced by ordinary voters is not addressed, the Republican Party may face a serious setback in the November election.

Analysts believe that in the context of slowing economic growth and a rebound in inflation, if energy prices and living costs do not fall significantly in the short term, the economic pressure induced by geopolitical conflict could further develop into political risks.